What the system saw and did. Basis frozen 27 Sep 2026; the log starts on that date for new situations, earlier rows are marked backfilled.
Situations log
| token | opened | state at open | state at close | cap at open | best 24 h | room |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGRIPPA | 18 Sep 20:44 | Attention first | open | $520K | +263% | live |
| SPRING | 14 Sep 19:27 | Money first | open | $330K | +102% | live |
| PLUMB | 23 Sep 11:02 | Attention first | Developing | $3.5M | +6% | frozen |
| FENNEL | 22 Sep 04:40 | Developing | Developing | $140K | +18% | frozen |
frozen basis 27 Sep 2026 · start date 27 Sep 2026 · marks on honest fills, repeats and phantoms excluded
Frozen rooms
SPRING · frozen at 09:14 (what was knowable then, nothing backfilled)
- state
- Money first
- evidence at the time
- 876 wallets in before the first Fomo-profiled trader, 260 recurring; no attention event; LP locked
- gaps at the time
- X dark; Telegram preview 5 min
- path afterwards
- +20% reached in 46 min; -30% not reached in the 24 h window
PLUMB · frozen at close, 25 Sep 11:02
- state
- Developing
- gaps kept
- Solana tape outage 17 to 25 Sep shown hatched, not smoothed
Caller records
members only · caller names are never shown on the public Record
| channel | calls | 1 h | 24 h | +50% | -50% first | stance changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PowsGem | 53 | +9% | -11% | 19% | 31% | 12 |
| Sugar | 44 | +6% | -14% | 14% | 36% | 7 |
| columbus | 31 | +12% | -2% | 26% | 22% | 3 |
medians on our tape · random-moment column beside each on the member page · calls we did not see are not counted
Similar situations, method note
"After this signal, the price rose 20% above the first price you could have bought at, after costs, and stayed there for five minutes before it ever fell 30%, in N of M cases within 24 hours; at a random moment on the same tokens it was K of L."
T6 §4, verbatim. First passage: +20% net of costs, held five minutes, before -30%, within 24 h.
| set | n | first passage | random moment | window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| crossings, $1M to $10M | 54 | 46.6% | 38.3% | 11 to 25 Sep |
illustrative row. Medians only, never a mean. Cells under n = 20 are hidden. Costs: 1% per side under $50K liquidity, 0.5% above; 60 s reaction delay. Shown on rooms as "Similar situations", held until Gate 1a and a lawyer.
What we saw
tokens seen, Solana
situations opened
state changes
closed
hatched = outage days (Solana tape 17 to 25 Sep)